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Political chase Trump – Clinton: the most tragic one of all bookmaker bets on political events

 Trump Clinton bets Portal Mazal


With the money earned by the sweat of the brow and placed on Hillary at William Hill offices or Ladbrokers gamblers were extremely disappointed by the unexpected victory of Republican Donald Trump.

Disappointment is not the only consequential result of the main political event of 2016. Owners of bookmaker’s offices will need to sum up their profit and losses, and the latter ones will be quite significant. Before the election campaign started J. Sharp, representative of William Hill announced that the fight for presidency between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump was one of the most profitable political events for the gambling industry. The total sum of money placed on bets is estimated at $25 million.

The cause of concern for the bookmaker’s offices relates to the fact that the majority of bets made on Trump’s victory were taken with huge index numbers, as he was the outsider with the initial rate 150 to 1. By the middle of July when the main candidates were determined, venturous market operators declared the following rates: 7 to 4 for Donald and 4 to 9 for Hillary. In October gamblers started to actively place bets on Trump, and the sum of money bet increased way more which lead to least-evil solutions such as index reduction for his presidency. Specialists from bookmaker’s offices started to make a parallel between this event and the referendum held in Great Britain for leaving European Union.

Still, the total sum of money bet during the election campaign kept growing and reached the highest possible amounts: William Hill collected $5 million, and bookmakers from Paddy Power collected $5 million from bets made on Trump, while the bets on Clinton were stopped when the rate reached the sum of $990,000.00 (for nothing!).

Following this unpredictable political act professionals in the field of gambling made several conclusions:

  1. Bets placed on politics can compete with bets placed on sports events, which means that the market will keep growing thus increasing “political” profit for bookmaker’s offices. The sum of the prize money won by their clients will increase as well.
  2. In the future it will be possible to re-evaluate scientific approaches and methods used for forecasting the dynamics of such events as well as instruments used by specialists from the bookmaker’s offices.
  3. Alignment of forces in this market may change: smaller companies can become flagships of the gambling industry; it’s likely that new operators will enter the market.
  4. The market operators will look for new mechanisms of protection from huge payoff costs resulting from mistakes made by political researchers. They will also develop new compensators providing protection from these errors.

It should be noted that the majority of the gambling offices were certain of Clinton’s victory, so their losses will be extremely high.

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